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Experts with over 100 years of experience resolving complex decision problems offer a proven, straightforward, and flexible roadmap for making better and more impactful decisions, and offer the tools to achieve your goals in every aspect of your life.
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Integrates statistical inference with decision making and discusses real-world actions involving economic payoffs and risks. After developing the rationale and demonstrating the power and relevance of the subjective, decision approach, this text examines and critiques the limitat...ions of the objective, classical approach.
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Superb non-technical introduction to game theory, primarily applied to social sciences. Clear, comprehensive coverage of utility theory, 2-person zero-sum games, 2-person non-zero-sum games, n-person games, individual and group decision-making, more. Bibliography.
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Where should I live? Is it time to get a new job? Which job candidate should I hire? What business strategy should I pursue? We spend the majority of our lives making decisions, both big and small. Yet, even though our success is largely determined by the choices that we make, ve...ry few of us are equipped with useful decision-making skills. Because of this, we often approach our choices tentatively, or even fearfully, and avoid giving them the time and thought required to put our best foot forward. In Smart Choices, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa-experts with over 100 years of experience resolving complex decision problems-offer a proven, straightforward, and flexible roadmap for making better and more impactful decisions, and offer the tools to achieve your goals in every aspect of your life. Their step-by-step, divide-and conquer approach will teach you how to: - Evaluate your plans - Break your potential decision into its key elements - Identify the key drivers that are most relevant to your goals - Apply systematic thinking - Use the right information to make the smartest choice Smart Choices doesn't tell you what to decide; it tells you how. As you routinely use the process, you'll become more confident in your ability to make decisions at work and at home. And, more importantly, by applying its time-tested methods, you'll make better decisions going forward. Be proactive. Don't wait until a decision is forced on you-or made for you. Seek out decisions that advance your long-term goals, values, and beliefs. Take charge of your life by making Smart Choices a lifetime habit.
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Whether you are selling a house, closing a business deal, settling a divorce, arbitrating a labor dispute, or trying to hammer out no international treaty, Howard Raiffa's new book will measurably improve your negotiating skills. Although it is a sophisticated self-help book--dir...ected to the lawyer, labor arbitrator, business executive, college dean, diplomat--it is not cynical or Machiavellian: Raiffa emphasizes problems and situations where, with the kinds of skills he aims to develop, disputants can achieve results that are beneficial to all parties concerned. Indeed, he argues that the popular zero-sum way of thinking, according to which one side must lose if the other wins, often makes both sides worse off than they would be when bargaining for joint mutual gains. Using a vast array of specific cases and clear, helpful diagrams, Raiffa not only elucidates the step-by-step processes of negotiation but also translates this deeper understanding into practical guidelines for negotiators and intervenors. He examines the mechanics of negotiation in imaginative fashion, drawing on his extensive background in game theory and decision analysis, on his quarter-century of teaching nonspecialists in schools of business and public policy, on his personal experiences as director of an international institute dealing with East/West problems, and on the results of simulated negotiation exercises with hundreds of participants. There are popular books on the art of winning and scholarly books on the science of negotiation, but this is the first book to bridge the two currents. Shrewd, accessible, and engagingly written, it shows how a little analysis sprinkled with a touch of artcan work to the advantage of any negotiator.
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Scientia nova veroffentlicht Originalarbeiten bahnbrechender Forscher oder allgemeinverstandliche Einfuhrungen in schwierige Spezialgebiete, die fur die Philosophie, Logik und Mathematik von ebenso groer Bedeutung sind, wie fur die Natur- und Sozialwissenschaften. Scientia nova i...st eine Bibliothek des modernen wissenschaftlichen Denkens, die dazu beitragt, die Zersplitterung der Forschung in Spezialgebiete zu uberwinden und einem neuen Denkstil zum Durchbruch zu verhelfen.
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This volume presents contributions from specialists in different fields and provides a summary and synthesis of the different approaches to decision making - normative, descriptive, and prescriptive - which largely correspond to different disciplinary interests.
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This text describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe his true feelings in order to make those critically important, vexing tradeoffs between incommensurable objectives.
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This is an examination of the applications of Bayesian statistical theory to real-life business problems of decision under conditions of uncertainty.
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Optimal Statistical Decisions
This book provides a thorough discussion in the theory and methodology of optimal statistical decisions. The volume represents a landmark. It still remains the clearest introduction to Bayesian statistical decision theory even in, this, a paperback ...reprint of the original book dating back to 1970 (under the aegis of McGraw Hill, Inc.). While the content does not include the computational advances that have become so popular and well used today, neither does it neglect what purposes are served by those computations. DeGroot's book, with its clear exposition of Bayesian principles, is useful to keep those purposes in mind. Of particular note is the fact that Bayesian and sequential decision problems are explained from the bottom-up with great care and clarity.
Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis
Its main objective is to examine the application and relevance of Bayes' theorem to problems that arise in scientific investigation in which inferences must be made regarding parameter values about which little is known a priori. Begins with a discussion of some important general aspects of the Bayesian approach such as the choice of prior distribution, particularly noninformative prior distribution, the problem of nuisance parameters and the role of sufficient statistics, followed by many standard problems concerned with the comparison of location and scale parameters. The main thrust is an investigation of questions with appropriate analysis of mathematical results which are illustrated with numerical examples, providing evidence of the value of the Bayesian approach.
Applied Statistical Decision Theory
"In the field of statistical decision theory, Raiffa and Schlaifer have sought to develop new analytic techniques by which the modern theory of utility and subjective probability can actually be applied to the economic analysis of typical sampling problems."
-From the foreword to their classic work Applied Statistical Decision Theory
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